When people first get into forex, they're typically fascinated and, at the same time, overwhelmed with the nearly endless complexities of technical analysis. Unfortunately, this is a methodology for trend identification that's based on historical chart patterns. Technical analysis is thus fundamentally flawed in that it attempts to do something impossible in our known universe: predict the future. It can't be done! What's more, history doesn't repeat itself. So past chart patterns have absolutely zero integrity relative to what's going to happen next in the forex market.
Yet, 80% of all new forex investors lose every penny they initially invest thanks to the flawed thinking behind technical analysis. People consistently make the mistake of believing that technical analysis will help them earn profits. Or they buy the latest trendy EA (Expert Advisor) and promptly throw away money on automation that does not work. There isn't a single EA that consistently earns profits. I buy them all. I try them all, cause I'd love to be surprised one day. But, the simple fact is that not ONE Expert Advisor consistently produces profits long term. Still, people love the idea of just magically pushing a button and making money. So, with eternal optimism, people buy these EA's and they lose money.
It's irritating and makes me angry.
I want to introduce you to another way to look at forex. In concept, this is going to sound profoundly simple. That's because it is!!!!!
What do we have in forex, if you strip away all the intricacies of technical and fundamental analysis? What is it that we see when we look at a chart in an MT4 platform? We see a moving piece of data: price. That's it. The price goes up (vertical) and it goes down (horizontal). And, you can observe these movements over periods of time (momentum/speed).
So, get simple. Stop thinking about global economies and who's rioting in the streets where, or what the economic conditions are in this nation and how it will impact some other nation...forget all that fundamental economic information. It's irrelevant to the mathematical problem of trajectory calculation.
Same is true for technical indicators. Forget channels and spinning tops and resistance levels. They mean nothing relative to the future.
Our objective is clear and really pretty simple. We're trying to calculate the trajectory of a currency moving through space at THIS PRESENT MOMENT, and we don't care about PAST patterns of movement. And we don't care about what causal effects may be prompting a currency to move up or down at one speed or another. We ONLY care about what's happening on that chart in this moment, cause THAT is where and how we make money.
Do you CARE "why" a currency goes up or down if you can simply identify the period of time where you can capture profits? I honestly contend that you will confuse yourself with the facts. You'll start introducing emotional and subjective thinking that screws up your trading decisions if you attempt to interpret world events or look at technical indicators.
You have to look at forex as a problem that's purely mathematical and there are empirical solutions because we actually have 100% true, streaming data. We actually get all we need to calculate the trajectory of a currency. It's simply the process of calculating the trajectory of price movement. Period.
When you look at your MT4 platform, what you should force yourself to see is just two fundamental things: price movement (which is vertical and horizontal), and the speed of price movement (which can be gauged in pips per X time frame). Forex provides us with two and only two variables which are 100% true at all times: price movement and time frame of X price movement. It streams into our MT4 platform in real time. This gives us the essential data to calculate momentum, which allows us to consistently identify trajectory.
Start thinking simple. Stop complicating your forex life with all the near infinite irrelevant things professional traders attempt to teach you. With effective money management, you can literally flip a coin and make a profit in forex. With even the most primitive trajectory calculation techniques, you should make big profits on a consistent basis. I teach this through my FX Power Hedge system, albeit an ongoing process of me trying to explain it better and better with every passing day. But hey, I try to teach it effectively and most traders who work with me "get it". My personal journey is told at www.fxpowerhedge.com. It may perhaps explain why I'm so hacked with the forex establishment and the ongoing rip off of every consumer trader, not to mention the seeming endless regulation they try to pile on top of us (but that we can get around if we know who to call when we open an account -- don't worry -- none of the latest regulations need affect you in any way).
You can profit on a consistent basis if you just focus on the data. Stick with facts. If you choose to learn through my system, I'll just ask that you work with me and let me try to explain it in my own way. I'm not a professional teacher, so I do what I can to explain this stuff. At the worst, I tell it like it is and I work very hard to liberate people from the constant BS of forex scammers. That's another reason why I only charge $29 bucks for my system, and I personally work with you as you learn the system in my own sometimes painfully slow way. But hey, as I said, I'm doing the best I can as a novice teacher, but successful trader.
The simple fact is that I got seriously hacked when I lost a lot of money because a major forex broker lied to me about technical analysis. I bought into it. I screwed up and I believed them. So I worked very hard to learn it. I paid them a disgusting amount of money to teach me.
Still, I lost every penny I put into no less than three different accounts that I traded with technical analysis. That's when I realized it was BS, and I got into the TRUE DATA behind forex. That's how I developed my system. I went on a pursuit of truth and I found it in the only 100% true data we get in forex. Mathematical calculations that are pretty simple related to trajectory of price movement. Because this is about reality. It's about what is happening now in terms of price movement.
It's not voodoo. Not guessing. Not predicting the future. Not hoping the past will repeat itself today in myriad complex chart patterns.
Just use your common sense. That's all I'm advising.
This is about data. 100% true variables that stream to you in your MT4 platform in real time.
This is not about guessing. Think trajectory. Trade smart. Win profits. You can do it.
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2 comments:
Very interesting article. Would really appreciate if you could describe more about this system. What mathematical method are you using? How do you make an opportunity of price movement? Does this system make extensive use of hedging?
There's no hedging involved. I could post the actual formula for calculating a mathematical trajectory, but I don't do that level of math in this trend identification methodology. As I say in the book, it's about taking quantitative data and then making a qualitative decision.
The mathematical formula for calculating a trajectory give you a snapshot. I think there might be a software program someone might be able to create that would take a series of snapshots -- so more a video -- and capture these measurements over every time frame in every chart ongoing. With that, you would STILL have to come up with a percent/statistical probability that one trend is going to continue versus another.
So, even if you do the math using both variables (trajectory or direction of movement PLUS velocity or speed of movement), then whether using actual mathematical formulas which are monumentally complex and time consuming absent a computer program -- OR doing it as I do by observing the data and then making a judgement of my own (as one might do in game theory), the result is likely the same. You are estimating probability of continued movement and you've got to do it knowing that there is no absolute guarantee that anything one way or the other will happen in the next five minutes or five hours or five days. Especially given the level of government intervention going on today.
So I look at net pips worth of movement in three sets of time frames that I outline in my book, Trajectory Forex. Then I look at the SPEED of movement. The faster the movement and the long it's been sustained over time, then the higher the probability is that it will continue (given some inevitable retracing).
This has been immensely successful for me. I have people who hate the methodology but I can honestly tell you that it's because they never figured out how to make it work. So if I'm guilty of anything, it is perhaps that I presume just about anyone can make these kinds of evaluations based on the real time streaming data in the MT4. And this is a data only system. No technical analysis/speculation and no fundamental analysis/predictive.
I'd also like to note that one fellow posted a brutally harsh and critical attack on my book on Amazon. I have a long series of e-mails from the guy from back when he purchased my original FX Power Hedge System. The fact is that he never figured out how to make the power hedge work, so he blamed me and concluded that obviously I must be a fraud. Cause, if he can't figure it out, then it MUST be impossible for anyone to do.
Then, inexplicably, he buys my SECOND book off Amazon. Of course, being that I'm not sure how intelligent the dude is based on his failure with FX Power Hedge, he naturally couldn't make Trajectory Forex work. So, he claims it's BS and that everything is already on the Internet. Ignorance is a powerful thing. The fact is that I evidenced that every component of my methodology in the book is original before publication. Indeed, it was a required criteria for publication and it's one of the first questions they ask before you can publish a book for sale on Amazon.
So, in truth, everything in my book is NOT available "for free on the Internet" as this guy claims in his Amazon review. In fact, I've never seen anyone combine the price movement trajectory with velocity of movement in the manner in which I do in Trajectory Forex.
You may find it out there soon, cause jerks like the guy who dumped on my book may decide to go online and publish content (which if I find it, I'll prosecute to the death). But, prior to publication, my methodology detailed in Trajectory Forex not only worked but was 100% original.
For those who fail, I suggest one important thing before attacking someone who's got a five year history of success in forex and written a book on the topic. Maybe YOU should look in the mirror. Write your own book on what you've done in forex. Until then, be responsible in what you say.
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